What Happened:
In recent commentary on the AI reinvention of HR, Josh Bersin, CEO of The Josh Bersin Company, told HR leaders not to overread the displacement narrative around their own field. The peg: Workspan's May 29 news bytes flagged that BLS projects 6% job growth for HR specialists through 2033, faster than the all-occupations average.
He puts HR job postings up 60% over the last five years, faster than most other professions. He concedes 30 to 40% of existing HR tasks can be automated with low effort, and still predicts the profession will not shrink in headcount.
Bersin's advice is to focus on the few big projects that transform the company and let AI absorb the routine work. He expects HR wages to rise as the function moves to a full-stack model.
More Insight:
The headline data point belongs to the federal Occupational Outlook Handbook: 6% growth for HR specialists through 2033, faster than the all-occupations average. Workspan flagged it as a counter-signal to a year of tech companies citing AI investment as the reason for cutting people teams.
"Will the HR profession shrink? I actually think not," he writes. His firm's tracking shows HR job postings up 60% in the last five years, with more than 250 job titles and nearly a hundred capabilities now in play. The growth, in his framing, is structural, because AI raises the strategic surface area of work the function has to cover.
Where automation does land, Bersin is direct. He estimates 30 to 40% of existing HR jobs can be automated with relatively low effort, mostly the transactional volume around HRIS data hygiene, basic policy questions, scheduling, and form-driven workflows.
"I also think HR wages will go up," Bersin writes, as HR teams take on broader, full-stack remits and employee-to-HR ratios climb to 200, 300, or even 400 to one. The per-seat value of an HR professional rises with the responsibility, and the argument is worth bringing to leadership before next year's planning cycle while the AI-layoff news still dominates the room.